*** Updated November 13, 2016 ***
By Michael Commisso for Trendler News.
Much has been made in this election cycle of the hidden Trump voting group (the so called Reagan Democrats), the Bradley effect (in other words being ashamed to admit to voting for Trump to pollsters, friends and family but then actually voting for him in the booth) and their impact on turnout. In analyzing this phenomenon we compare the results from 2012 between Obama and Romney with the major demographic breakdown of White, Black, Hispanic and Other voter class. In reviewing 2012 turnout and exit poll final voting the following results were seen – a four point win for Obama over Romney on share of electorate.
| Obama | Romney | 2012 | |
| Turnout Rate | |||
| Non-Hispanic White | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Hispanic | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| Other | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Share of Electorate | Obama | Romney | 2012 |
| Non-Hispanic White | 39% | 59% | 73% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 93% | 6% | 16% |
| Hispanic | 71% | 27% | 8% |
| Other | 67% | 31% | 3% |
| Weighted Race | Obama | Romney | 2012 |
| Non-Hispanic White | 18% | 27% | 71% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 10% | 1% | 14% |
| Hispanic | 2% | 1% | 11% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 31% | 29% | ||
| Share on Turnout | 52% | 48% |
Reviewing the data from the previous seven election cycles from 1988-2012 we have developed an algorithm to determine the turnout rates for Trump versus Clinton in each of the four major voting demographics.
| 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | 1992 | 1988 | |
| Turnout Rate | |||||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 61.8% | 65.2% | 64.3% | 57.6% | 54.5% | 61.6% | 55.7% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 67.4% | 69.1% | 61.4% | 52.9% | 48.1% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| Hispanic | 43.1% | 46.5% | 42.9% | 38.9% | 37.9% | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| Other | 45.4% | 48.0% | 44.9% | 39.8% | 40.4% | 42.8% | 41.3% |
| Share of Electorate | 2012 | 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | 1992 | 1988 |
| Non-Hispanic White | 74.1% | 76.6% | 79.5% | 81.0% | 82.7% | 84.9% | 85.1% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Hispanic | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Other | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
The major impact is that it is logical to assume that the Obama coalition would return for Obama in 2012 from 2008 because it was actually him on the ticket. To assume that she will attract the Obama coalition with her extreme enthusiasm gap is not logical and it is more logical to assume that African Americans, Latinos and Asians would revert to their normal voting turnout rates. On the other hand with Trump the bump in White voter turnout is completely acceptable given the enthusiasm fever from his populist movement. Extrapolating these turnout results would result in Donald Trump winning the popular vote by 4% which adds continued narrative that this will be the closest election since Bush – Gore in 2000.
| Clinton vs Trump 2016 (Projected) | |||
| Clinton | Trump | 2016 | |
| Turnout Rate | |||
| Non-Hispanic White | 65% | 65% | 65.0% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 48% | 48% | 48.0% |
| Hispanic | 38% | 38% | 38.0% |
| Other | 43% | 43% | 43.2% |
| Share of Electorate | Clinton | Trump | 2016 |
| Non-Hispanic White | 39% | 59% | 77% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 85% | 15% | 12% |
| Hispanic | 63% | 35% | 8% |
| Other | 65% | 35% | 3% |
| Weighted Race | Clinton | Trump | |
| Non-Hispanic White | 19% | 28% | 69% |
| Non-Hispanic Black | 7% | 1% | 15% |
| Hispanic | 2% | 1% | 12% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 28% | 31% | ||
| Share on Turnout | 48% | 52% | |
Be the first to comment on "Turnout is why Trump will win the Popular Vote if not the Electoral College"