Analysis: Latest Reports from The Washington Posts ‘Monkey Cage’

Here are the latest reports from The Washington Posts ‘Monkey Cage’.

Europeans might be willing to take refugees — but only if they help the economy

“What types of asylum seekers are European voters willing to accept?” This is the question that Jens Hainmueller and two other political scientists, Kirk Bansak and Dominik Hangartner, set out to answer in their latest study, a survey of 18,000 voters in 15 European countries. As part of the study, conducted in February and March, […]

Drone blowback in Pakistan is a myth. Here’s why.

Since 2001, the United States has used armed drones (or unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs) against Islamist militants in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Yemen and Pakistan. Obama administration officials and other proponents believe drones work because they deny terrorists sanctuaries and degrade their ability to plan attacks. However, human rights organizations and even some former U.S. military […]

Gambia’s president is under pressure to step down. Is it time for a change?

Is #GambiaRising? Since mid-April, a popular movement with this tagline has called for President Yahya Jammeh to resign. Jammeh has ruled Gambia’s small population of just under 2 million people for more than 20 years. His unpredictable and highly repressive leadership draws comparison to the regimes of some of Africa’s most infamous dictators. An April 14 […]

This is what Trump and Sanders get wrong about free trade

Free trade agreements have taken a beating during the 2016 presidential campaign. Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have repeatedly argued that trade deals — such as the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the yet-to-be-ratified Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) — cost America jobs, especially in manufacturing. These criticisms usually center on the idea that […]

No, Yemen’s Houthis actually aren’t Iranian puppets

For years, mounting instability had many predicting the collapse of Yemen. These forecasts became reality in 2014 when years of accumulated tension pushed the country into civil war. On one side is an alliance of the Houthis, a northern movement that has been fighting the government since 2004, and troops and militias loyal to a […]

Sorry, Donald Trump. Trade policy won’t help you win Sanders voters.

For months now, Donald Trump has suggested that his position on trade will help him win over Sen. Bernie Sanders’s voters in the presidential election. The presumptive GOP nominee even implied that support from Sanders voters could offset a potentially divided Republican Party, saying recently, “I’m gonna get Bernie people to vote, because they like […]

Are we ready to raise taxes on the rich? History says no.

Economic inequality is high and rising. At the same time, many governments are struggling to balance budgets while maintaining spending for popular programs. That’s prompted some presidential candidates to argue it’s time to raise taxes on the rich. Bernie Sanders is leading the charge and would create a new top income tax rate of 54.2 […]

Are Muslim countries more violent?

Most recent civil wars have taken place in Muslim countries, and a large majority of the victims are Muslims. This is not a “clash of civilizations.” It is a battle within the Muslim world. Interstate wars — wars between nations — are now rare, and civil wars are now largely concentrated in an arc from Central […]

Should the U.S. worry about tensions between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in central Asia?

The five post-Soviet countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) are secular states with a majority Sunni Muslim population — and each has a Shiite minority population. Sunni-Shiite tensions in other countries have escalated into violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Iran and elsewhere. So what’s the story on Central Asia’s Shiite groups? […]

Here’s what Clinton really thinks about Appalachian coal country

Editors: There has recently been a controversy over Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s attitude to coal miners in Appalachia. This post, originally published in January 2016, describes her political program for coal. If coal is becoming politically weaker, why is Hillary Clinton offering a $30 billion plan to revitalize Appalachian coal communities? Coal is declining […]

The real refugee crisis is in the Middle East, not Europe

The Syrian conflict has reached its fifth year, but the European aspect of the refugee crisis it generated has dominated news headlines since the summer of 2015. Numerous  academic panels have been convened to discuss how the European Union is (not) coping with its increasing numbers of asylum seekers. A supra-national entity of 500 million, […]

Prince, ‘Controversy (Purple Mix)’: The Week In One Song

Having effectively clinched the GOP nomination, Donald Trump goes on to a week of controversy, featuring racist butlers, racist delegates, snubs from the last two GOP presidents and the last GOP presidential candidate, and a House speaker who won’t fall in line.

Why unarmed revolutions topple some dictators but not others

Over the last few decades, the world has witnessed the proliferation of a new type of revolution. Alternatively labeled “negotiated,” “democratic,” “electoral,” “color,” “nonviolent” or “unarmed,” these revolutions largely eschew violent tactics and have become a distinguishing feature of contemporary international politics. Since Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran, was toppled in January […]

It’s been 25 years since Sierra Leone’s brutal civil war. Here’s what we know about helping communities recover.

Twenty-five years ago, Sierra Leone plunged into a decade-long brutal civil war, made famous by the chilling practice of mass amputations of hands, arms and legs and the film “Blood Diamond.” How does a country recover from a war in which neighbor turned on neighbor, 50,000 people were killed and more than half the population […]

It’s not just Trump. Voting for populists makes voters angrier and more discontented.

Populist politicians and parties are increasingly winning elections in the developed West. On April 24, Norbert Hofer of Austria’s radical right-wing populist Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs won the first round of that country’s presidential elections. Marine Le Pen’s National Front is performing well in French opinion polls, and in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland recently gained support […]

The World Health Organization is electing a new leader. Here’s what you need to know.

Two years ago, the Ebola virus buffeted West Africa and alarmed the world. A belated international mobilization coupled with heroic local action averted a wider global crisis — but not before 28,000 people were infected and more than 11,000 died. Survivors continue to live with the long-term health consequences. As detailed here at the Monkey Cage, the […]

Is the war against the Islamic State illegal? A new lawsuit should prompt Congress to decide.

In April, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments about the Obama administration’s contested immigration initiatives and whether they go beyond the president’s legal authority to execute the law. Notably, the House of Representatives sent its own lawyer for the occasion. That extra attorney was there because the court had allowed the House to formally make […]

Beirut’s election was surprisingly competitive. Could it shake up Lebanese politics?

On May 8, Lebanon held the first of four rounds of municipal elections. The only elections since 2010, this round of voting represents Lebanese citizens’ first opportunity to exercise their political voice since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, ensuing influx of refugees and popular protests against a paralyzing trash crisis. Lebanon’s politicians have […]

Here’s what you need to know about Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment vote in Brazil on Wednesday

Brazil’s Senate is due to vote on Wednesday on whether to impeach its president, Dilma Rousseff, for violating budget rules, charges that The Washington Post explains here. Ordinarily, you don’t expect a president to be impeached for accounting practices, unless there’s embezzling or outright corruption involved. None of that has been alleged, as NPR explains. And […]

Is Trump the last gasp of Reagan’s Republican Party?

With Donald Trump almost certainly the Republican Party’s candidate for president, pundits in and out of the conservative movement are predicting devastating effects for the party. They have good reason to think so. Political scientist Stephen Skowronek’s thoughtful theory of presidential leadership suggests that, if Trump were to be elected, his presidency would end the […]

Why Kenya’s threat to close its refugee camps is even worse than you think

Where will 600,000 refugees go when they are kicked out of their host country? No, I’m not talking about Syrian refugees in Germany, or Greece or any state in the global north. Last week Kenya’s government announced that its “hosting of refugees has come to an end.” This is serious. For decades Kenya has offered […]

Who becomes a terrorist, and why?

After major terrorist attacks hit Brussels and Paris, Europe is still reeling. These atrocities prompted a heated dispute between two noted French scholars of political Islam, Gilles Kepel and Olivier Roy, over why a handful of European Muslims become terrorists. Their disagreement isn’t just an intellectual squabble. It strikes to the heart of how the West understands […]

The changing face of women’s political participation in the Middle East

The barriers to women’s political participation in the Middle East have long preoccupied scholars and analysts. The Arab uprisings of early 2011 disrupted virtually every dimension of Arab politics and societies, forcing a systematic re-evaluation of many long-held political science theories and assumptions. The place of women in politics and the public sphere was no exception. […]

Can Trump re-draw the electoral map? There’s one big problem.

With presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton seemingly headed for a general-election showdown, a lot of people want to talk about the electoral map and, in particular, whether Trump could “re-draw” it or even win it. But any conversation about the map has to start with this key fact: Over time, there are smaller […]

GOP voters picked Trump. Party leaders aren’t falling in line. Here’s why that’s surprising.

Now that Donald Trump has all but wrapped up the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, the party’s elites are divided over whether or not they will support him. Some, including 1996 presidential nominee Robert J. Dole and former vice president Richard B. Cheney, have endorsed Trump. Others have not, at least for now, most notably including […]

What the siege of Sarajevo can teach us about Aleppo

The recent bombing of a hospital in Aleppo portends a longer, bloodier siege of Syria’s largest city and vital commercial center. In what could be a turning point in the five-year war, the pending siege of Aleppo has an eerie yet informative parallel to a previous conflict: the siege of Sarajevo in Bosnia. The dynamics […]

The striking decline in women’s support for Donald Trump (in 2 graphs)

Donald Trump has a well-documented problem with women.  Several surveys show that about 70 percent of women rate Trump unfavorably.  And recent polls by CBS and CNN both suggest that he could lose female voters to Democrat Hillary Clinton by at least 25 percentage points in November. Even worse for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, his image among women […]

Would Clinton really appoint a cabinet that’s half women and half men?

Recently, Hillary Clinton promised that, if elected, she will name women to half of her presidential cabinet posts. If that happens, Clinton would join a handful of other global leaders who have appointed equal numbers of men and women — including, most recently, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Why would Clinton promise a gender-parity cabinet? […]

Here’s what it means when politicians and pundits call Trump ‘dangerous’

In a recent interview, Hilary Clinton described her likely general-election opponent, Donald Trump, as “dangerous.” Seasoned observers often shrug off this kind of hyperbole, especially in an election season. But ideas of political danger have changed throughout U.S. political history — and what politicians describe as “dangerous” tells us something about the stability of our […]

This is how the new Captain America movie gets global politics wrong

The directors of Marvel’s “Captain America: Civil War” say they wanted to create a movie that reflects some of the ambiguities of real-world politics. The movie is very good and highly entertaining. However, its understanding of politics ducks the real political issues that superheroes would pose. Nobody elected the superheroes The famous comic book author Frank Miller […]

Nick Lowe, ‘I Love The Sound of Breaking Glass’

With a victory in the Indiana primary and the subsequent departure of Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the race, Donald Trump is left with a virtually unobstructed path to the GOP presidential nomination.

‘The Good Wife’ transformed how political women are shown on TV. Here’s how.

“The Good Wife,” CBS’s critically acclaimed and popular television series focusing on the personal and professional lives of Alicia Florrick, played by Julianna Margulies, ends Sunday. The show’s “good wife” stands beside her politician-husband after he has been caught in a sex scandal. Through the show, we learn what she’d been thinking – and, presumably, […]

People think that economic sanctions hurt Putin and helped undermine apartheid in South Africa. They’re wrong.

Lee Jones, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, has just published “Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work.” In it, he evaluates the use and success of sanctions in three key cases — South Africa, Iraq and Myanmar — and finds that sanctions rarely achieve their stated aims. […]

Wonder why prisons stay full when crime goes down? Here’s the real reason.

Crime and punishment — and specifically, the United States’ high rates of incarceration — have been in the news lately. In the presidential campaign, protesters have demanded an accounting for the 1994 Crime Bill, which President Bill Clinton signed, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton supported, and Sen. Bernie Sanders voted for. Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald […]

Did Chile ditch its authoritarian government 26 years ago? Not quite.

Former Chilean president Patricio Aylwin died April 19 at the age of 97. Aylwin, a Christian Democrat who took office in 1990, was the first democratically elected president to follow Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s oppressive military dictatorship. Aylwin also was a key player in Chile’s democratic transition and one of the founders of the country’s center-left coalition, […]